Who’s winning POTUS? Will it be called on election night or drawn out? Congress? Etc
Trump seems to always exceed expectations, so I fear he will almost certainly win unless a health condition forces him out of the race.
However, I have consistently under estimated Harris, so maybe I’ll be wrong yet again and she will be the one to overperform…
Without question Trump is winning. It feels like it should defy logic, but it actually matches with the current mood in the nation, and the state of the ‘culture war’.
The current betting odds aggregations have trump at 58%, harris at 41%
https://www.realclearpolling.com/betting-odds/2024/president
Well that’s disheartening. Can’t believe that many people prefer a racist con man to a competent woman.
A 34 time convicted felon child rapist pussy grabber racist con man
Betting markets don’t really have any predictive value. It’s all vibes.
The 1% will benefit.
2016 2: electric boogaloo. Harris loses PA and MI due to campaigning on continued genocide, leaving her with a popular vote victory but electoral college loss.
That’s what I’d bet on if I were a betting man.
My rational side wants to see Harris win, but the anarchist in me wants to see Trump win, just to see what would happen. Not living in the US, obviously.
Trump winning could be a disaster for the whole world since US is such a major player in basically everything, but my anarchist side does not listen.
They’ll both be disasters for the USA.
Trump will be a disaster because millions of Americans who are currently on the brink of poverty will sink into poverty under his policies, amplifying all kinds of social problems and civil unrest.
Harris will be a disaster because she will escalate unpopular military conflicts, overextending the military, further lessening the prestige of the US, and encouraging countries to de-dollarize.
The next four years are going to be rough. There’s no avoiding it.
My prediction is that every other country will watch with a mix of concern and popcorn
As a non-American, this. And I honestly don’t understand why so many people in our neck of the woods aren’t more concerned about this. You guys are such a heavy hitter from a socio-economical standpoint, that anything which goes down in your country will inevitably affect everyone else.
We won’t have a clear winner. No matter which candidate “wins”, there will be widespread allegations of voter fraud. There will be protests. Biden will declare a national emergency. What happens after that? I don’t know. But I am prepared for major social unrest.
A large number of people from both major parties are absolutely unwilling to accept a win by the opposing candidate. I’ve never seen the country so divided.
I hope you are right about the left not accepting a Trump win. I don’t even know why he’s a legitimate candidate with the whole insurrection thing. Openly gaming the election? Felonies? I don’t think the US can survive four more years of this guy, so I think the time for passively accepting his shenanigans is over.
Everyone worth less than 8 figures will lose.
Little else will change. Regardless of figurehead.
I’m almost positive Trump wins with how close all the swing states are now and how he’s improving in polling (what the actual fuck people?!) the closer we get to the election.
I’m also almost positive we will not know for sure on election night as I absolutely expect R controlled states to drag their feet and declare “irregularities” that they need to investigate if they don’t like the way things are going.
Impossible to say but Harris is winning the popular vote for sure. I think however it goes there’s going to be some chaos and violence, I wouldn’t be surprised if there’s blatant attempts by MAGA cultists to sabotage what they can and drag out the vote counting and electoral processes. Its probably going to be a shitshow, and possibly a horrorshow. I don’t expect it to be called on election night unless its a significant and obvious win, which currently seems very unlikely. I would be less surprised if there was a terrorist attack on election night than a clear and obvious conclusion to the election.
Congress I think Dems are likely to outperform, the RNC is no longer what it was and doesn’t have the ground game they used to. All their money and resources have been sucked into the black hole of Trumps campaign.
I hope its a 269 to 269 tie cuz that would be funny af
I think we’ll have a Dem trifecta after election night. I feel the even the nonpartisan polls have overcorrected in favor of Republicans after 2016, and since the overturning of Roe, polls have been underestimating Dem candidates.
According to some of the information in here they seem to be claiming we’re still overestimating Dem performance in presidential elections, but that midterm elections where Trump isn’t on the ballot thing are more accurate. :(
It’s certainly possible. The polls are showing it’s effectively a tossup. But my real theory is that things are fundamentally different after the death of Roe, and that the pollsters really don’t have a way to capture that. Yes, it is a harsh year for the Senate, but there are some dark horse races, namely Texas and Nebraska, that may really surprise us.
I’ve been reading some discussions this week about fake polls claiming Republicans are winning to make Dems think there’s no point in voting. Apparently it was a technique used in a previous recent election? It would explain all the results I’ve seen in the last few days showing them with a strong lead, where a week or two ago other polls showed an even race. Doesn’t really matter though, everyone should remember that the only thing that counts is getting out and casting your vote no matter what the polls might suggest.
There have been a lot of Republican polls posted, part of their “flood the zone” strategy. But I think even the nonpartisan polls are underestimating Dem support a bit.
One can hope, but I suspect nobody will be announcing a victor on Tuesday night.
Global thermonuclear war.
Love a War Games reference.
Don’t make me hope.
