Who’s winning POTUS? Will it be called on election night or drawn out? Congress? Etc
2016 2: electric boogaloo. Harris loses PA and MI due to campaigning on continued genocide, leaving her with a popular vote victory but electoral college loss.
That’s what I’d bet on if I were a betting man.
Everyone worth less than 8 figures will lose.
Little else will change. Regardless of figurehead.
I’m almost positive Trump wins with how close all the swing states are now and how he’s improving in polling (what the actual fuck people?!) the closer we get to the election.
I’m also almost positive we will not know for sure on election night as I absolutely expect R controlled states to drag their feet and declare “irregularities” that they need to investigate if they don’t like the way things are going.
The current betting odds aggregations have trump at 58%, harris at 41%
https://www.realclearpolling.com/betting-odds/2024/president
Well that’s disheartening. Can’t believe that many people prefer a racist con man to a competent woman.
Betting markets don’t really have any predictive value. It’s all vibes.
I wouldn’t rely on them for predictions, but I do think they can be a reasonable proxy for people’s beliefs and/or assumptions. And I would say they at least loosely track the truth…
NBA betting is not perfectly predictive, but there’s a reason the Celtics are at the top and the Pistons are at the bottom.
This page has some background, but historically they’ve always beat polling and any other prediction algorithms as long as they’ve been around.
A 34 time convicted felon child rapist pussy grabber racist con man
Maybe I’m crazy, but I feel like gamblers have a heavy right lean.
Edit - Oops: https://midwest.social/post/18205923?scrollToComments=true
You’re not wrong, it’s because leftists are generally more critical of gambling.
Gamblers don’t always get it right, but this page has some interesting history: https://electionbettingodds.com/about.html
Gamblers, polls, and the NYT’s most sophisticated prediction algorithms all got it very wrong in 2016, and severely overestimating hillary and underestimating trump. But of those three, the prediction markets were the least wrong.
The 1% will benefit.
My prediction is that every other country will watch with a mix of concern and popcorn
As a non-American, this. And I honestly don’t understand why so many people in our neck of the woods aren’t more concerned about this. You guys are such a heavy hitter from a socio-economical standpoint, that anything which goes down in your country will inevitably affect everyone else.
Trump seems to always exceed expectations, so I fear he will almost certainly win unless a health condition forces him out of the race.
However, I have consistently under estimated Harris, so maybe I’ll be wrong yet again and she will be the one to overperform…
Trump outperformed polling in both of the last elections, and the polls are much closer now, so if he even just outperforms the same amount as before he wins.
I think the polls have tried to correct for this, and I also believe Kamala has huge and sophisticated ground game operation aimed at turnout while Trump’s team seems completely disorganized. So I wonder if that advantage in operational sophistication counts for anything.
Impossible to say but Harris is winning the popular vote for sure. I think however it goes there’s going to be some chaos and violence, I wouldn’t be surprised if there’s blatant attempts by MAGA cultists to sabotage what they can and drag out the vote counting and electoral processes. Its probably going to be a shitshow, and possibly a horrorshow. I don’t expect it to be called on election night unless its a significant and obvious win, which currently seems very unlikely. I would be less surprised if there was a terrorist attack on election night than a clear and obvious conclusion to the election.
Congress I think Dems are likely to outperform, the RNC is no longer what it was and doesn’t have the ground game they used to. All their money and resources have been sucked into the black hole of Trumps campaign.
No matter who “wins election” Americans will lose
I hope its a 269 to 269 tie cuz that would be funny af
Without question Trump is winning. It feels like it should defy logic, but it actually matches with the current mood in the nation, and the state of the ‘culture war’.
We won’t have a clear winner. No matter which candidate “wins”, there will be widespread allegations of voter fraud. There will be protests. Biden will declare a national emergency. What happens after that? I don’t know. But I am prepared for major social unrest.
A large number of people from both major parties are absolutely unwilling to accept a win by the opposing candidate. I’ve never seen the country so divided.
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I think we’ll have a Dem trifecta after election night. I feel the even the nonpartisan polls have overcorrected in favor of Republicans after 2016, and since the overturning of Roe, polls have been underestimating Dem candidates.
According to some of the information in here they seem to be claiming we’re still overestimating Dem performance in presidential elections, but that midterm elections where Trump isn’t on the ballot thing are more accurate. :(
It’s certainly possible. The polls are showing it’s effectively a tossup. But my real theory is that things are fundamentally different after the death of Roe, and that the pollsters really don’t have a way to capture that. Yes, it is a harsh year for the Senate, but there are some dark horse races, namely Texas and Nebraska, that may really surprise us.
I’ve been reading some discussions this week about fake polls claiming Republicans are winning to make Dems think there’s no point in voting. Apparently it was a technique used in a previous recent election? It would explain all the results I’ve seen in the last few days showing them with a strong lead, where a week or two ago other polls showed an even race. Doesn’t really matter though, everyone should remember that the only thing that counts is getting out and casting your vote no matter what the polls might suggest.
There have been a lot of Republican polls posted, part of their “flood the zone” strategy. But I think even the nonpartisan polls are underestimating Dem support a bit.
One can hope, but I suspect nobody will be announcing a victor on Tuesday night.
57% chance of Trump. If I thought the odds were otherwise, I would bet otherwise: https://www.electionbettingodds.com/President2024_week.html
