• The original Saudi plan was for a limited, symbolic strike aimed at sending a deterrent message rather than causing widespread human losses.

• According to this account, Saudi Arabia obtained a list of targets through the American side, and the PM of iraq Ali-Zaidi was reportedly informed in advance that the response would be limited to specific locations.

⚠️ The information further indicates that Zaydi instructed relevant authorities to evacuate those locations before the strike. However, the question remains: did these instructions actually reach all targeted units? Did the head of the Hashd al-Shaabi, Faleh al-Fayyad, communicate this to all factions, or was the decision not fully implemented, or did a breakdown in communication prevent the instructions from reaching everyone?

• This question is important because some locations were indeed evacuated, while others remained occupied.

What happened subsequently was not part of the Saudi calculations. Instead of a limited, symbolic strike, the operation resulted in bloodshed, which was reflected in the tone of the Saudi statement issued after the strike, which was an attempt to contain the political fallout and reduce tensions.

• Politically, the strike has shifted the balance of power within Iraq. Prior to the strike, Zaydi had a clear advantage, based on anti-corruption campaigns, reform measures, and growing popular and regional support, which gave him more leverage to push for a policy of centralizing weapons under state control.

• However, the strike has shifted the focus back to the factions and put Zaydi in a very sensitive position. Zaydi, who was trying to establish Iraq’s image as a reliable partner for the international and Gulf communities, found himself facing a strike that targeted Iraqi territory and caused casualties, which put him under significant political and public pressure.

• Furthermore, it is reported that Zaydi, in anticipation of his upcoming visit to Saudi Arabia, requested a symbolic response that would maintain internal balance and reduce pressure. However, Saudi Arabia did not agree to this request.

@SimurghRes