That’s a fair analysis, though I’m obviously biased against Jolani (my pfp stands as evidence), so I often interpret his actions more maliciously. If one thing is for sure, it’s that Jolani can market himself extremely well, I mean the fact that we call him Jolani is an oddity among most, as he’s quite successfully pivoted to the name Ahmad Al-Shara.

Shara, Jolani, regardless of what you call him, was able to fit the mold that the western press had for him very effectively. The meme about an Al-Nusra front leader putting on a suit and becoming Mr. Moderate Rebel only really works because he did it so seamlessly.

This is all to say, that the guy knows how to brand himself and who his audience is. This statement could eitheir be a calculated attempt to maintain his image, or a genuine shift it strategy, but we won’t be able to tell until we’re in the twilight of the current conflict.

Could Jolani betray his takfeeri power base, securing himself through playing sides with Türkiye, Iran, and the Arab monarchs? Maybe, I think it’s less likely of an option, but I wouldn’t rule out the possibility.

However I’m more inclined o believe that he’s dependent first and foremost on the interests of Türkiye, and specifically the Neo-Ottoman ambitions of Erdogan. Second to the US who ensured his rise to power in the first place, they want to continue removing obstacles to toral US domination in the region. A close third, being the EU and Qatar, whose financial interests involve privitizing Syrian assets (for the EU) and establishing gas lines to the EU (for Qatar). Fourth on the list is to the foreign Takfeeri and other Salafi elements who act as the military backing of his regime, they are just fanatics who want to exterminate Syrian minorities for the sake of purity. And the final interest is to the largely ignorant Syrian Arab Sunni populace who have a few core principles that he has to posture towards like Palestine.

His actions are likely calculated by going down that latter of importance.