This is a thread specifically for the war, not a general megathread (use the pinned /c/genzedong thread for that).

Please keep related news in this thread rather than making separate posts. Remember to include sources and avoid spreading rumours.

Previous megathread

  • rainpizza@lemmygrad.ml
    31·
    14 days ago

    DROP SITE NEWS: 💢 A senior Iranian official tells Drop Site another U.S. attack is likely

    🔸 “Based on current assessments, another military attack seems likely,” the official tells Jeremy Scahill.
    🔸 Says Trump’s blockade has failed to achieve its goals.
    🔸Adds Trump “can’t keep the blockade going much longer” — increasing pressure to act.
    🔸 Warns the U.S. will likely escalate to try to force a result.

    🔹Expects escalation to focus on:
    ➤ Hormuz and Iran’s coastline
    ➤ Expanded military operations
    ➤ A new wave of assassinations of Iranian leaders, potentially with Israel

    🔹Why Iran thinks this:
    ➤ Trump can’t sustain the blockade indefinitely
    ➤ He needs a visible outcome or ‘win’
    ➤ Escalation becomes the fallback option

    🔹Iran’s posture in response:
    ➤ Preparing for retaliation across the region
    ➤ Has rebuilt defenses during the ceasefire
    ➤ And developed new target lists

    Full new report from Jeremy Scahill here https://www.dropsitenews.com/p/trump-iran-war-threats-hormuz-israel

    Also, interesting piece of information from the reporting:

    “If this new scenario ends up becoming contested, in which the risk of war is still there, looming in the background, in which there isn’t full acceptance and as a result you also don’t have a full flow of oil, that will ensure that the international markets are going to try to reduce the strategic significance of the Strait of Hormuz,” Parsi said. “In that scenario, Iran needs to also have an alternative.”

    As it works on its future plans for managing Hormuz, Iran also has been working to prepare for such a scenario. It has been negotiating the expansion of alternative land shipping options in the region and is brokering the erection of a network of routes transiting Pakistan and Afghanistan, a parallel trade system outside of Western dominance. Iran envisions this as establishing itself as a central transit hub in the heart of central and western Asia.

    “This is an important development. For years, we did not pay much attention to developing land transit infrastructure due to a lack of necessity. However, we are now moving forward at a very fast pace, and the level of engagement from the countries involved in these corridors has genuinely surprised us,” said the Iranian official. “This dynamic is reshaping the region and will significantly transform the future of trade and the nature of relations between countries in West Asia.”

    These alternative land routes are not just long-term strategic planning by Tehran, but a direct response to the blockade in the Strait of Hormuz that Iran believes will allow it to endure a prolonged standoff by countering some of the economic and supply impact. “Our volume of maritime trade is very high, so naturally shifting it to land transit won’t be easy,” the official said. But, he added, “things are actually moving forward at a really good pace.”

      • rainpizza@lemmygrad.ml
        24·
        14 days ago

        Sadly, if Brain Berletic’s take turns out to be true, the war will not end soon but it will expand.

        You can check his take here -> https://journal-neo.su/2026/04/28/why-the-us-is-at-war-with-iran-and-why-the-war-might-pause-but-wont-end/

        Until the interests driving US foreign policy — including the arms industry, big oil and gas, big tech, the automotive industry, and many others — are displaced around the globe by the alternatives offered by multipolarism, and until the multipolar world can create sufficient deterrence against not only US military aggression but also the economic coercion, political interference, and capture that lead to that aggression, the US will continue to hold global peace, prosperity, and stability hostage to its demands for continued unipolar hegemony over the planet.

        • PumpkinFactory@lemmygrad.mlEnglish
          22·
          14 days ago

          I don’t want to sound like I am crassly glazing my own country (China), but come to think of it, I am immensely thankful that China is taking up the economic fight against US hegemony.

          arms industry -> Good luck with missiles and jets while we hold rare earth and specialized metal industries in hard check
          big oil -> renewables are gaining ground despite efforts of big oil to cripple them, and most solar panels are now exported by China
          big tech -> Alternatives are here, including a much more resource efficient ecosystem of AI, to the point even companies in Silicon Valley are using them
          automotive industry -> Got Ford so shocked, lobbying efforts have been made in Washinton to never allow Chinese EVs to compete

          Also, banking and international transaction -> used to be, SWIFT was the only game in town, now no longer.

          Despite not being a “pure” socialist state, China is taking on the challenge of the century and taking on the crumbling empire by it’s neck.

          • Cowbee [he/they]@lemmygrad.ml
            28·
            14 days ago

            To be clear, “pure” socialism is largely a western conception. China has a socialist market economy, and is gradually developing and progressing along that road. Socialism is a process more than it is a “thing.”