“The future ain’t what it used to be.”

-Yogi Berra

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Joined 2 years ago
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Cake day: July 29th, 2023

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  • Cross validation is a way of calculating the likely uncertainty of any model (it doesn’t have to be a machine learning model).

    A common cross validation approach is LOOCV (leave one out cross validation), for small datasets. Another is K-folds cross validation. In any case, the basics is to leave out “some amount” of your training data, totally removed from the training process, then you train your model, then you validate it on the trained model. You then repeat this process over the k-folds or each unit of your training data to create a valid uncertainty.

    So a few things. First, this a standard approach in machine learning, because once you get stop making the assumptions of frequentism (and you probably should), you no longer get things like uncertainty for free, because the assumptions aren’t met.

    In some approaches in machine learning, this is necessary because there really isn’t a tractable way to get uncertainty from the model (although in others, like random forest, you get cross validation for free).

    Cross validation is great because you really don’t need to understand anything about the model itself; you just implement the validation strategy and you get a valid answer for the model uncertainty.







  • Somewhat, but keep in mind, its a half decade of study to develop the understanding. Also, trying to create parallels between how plants do sex and how animals do sex, thats going to throw you off. Plants do sex in a fundamentally different way than how animals do sex.

    The basic trajectory in the evolution of land plants has between towards additional layers around the gametophytic generation, and additional investment in that generation. Animals, like us, have a unicellular gametic generation (sperm and eggs). Plants, well, its complicated… Basically, when plants first came onto land, the haploid, gametic generation was the “big obvious plant” thing, but that switched at a certain point. So its just not possible to map plant evolution onto animal evolution.

    Early land plants invested very very little into the next generation. It was all spores, single cells, which then had to establish themselves without any support from the parent generation. But the haploid generation was the dominant plant part. These plants are still with us today in the form of mosses and liverworts.

    In liverworts and mosses, its still the N generation that is the dominant plant part, and the 2N generation is totally dependent on the N generation. This all got flipped on its head when plants developed vascularization, and the 2N generation became the dominant plant part.

    PLANT EVOLUTIONARY TIMELINE FOR SEED COMPONENTS
    
    | MYA   | Evolutionary Step                 | Seed Component         | Definition                                                      | Dominant Plant Body |
    |-------|----------------------------------|------------------------|------------------------------------------------------------------|----------------------|
    | ~470  | Earliest land plants              || Non-vascular; liverwort-like                                     | N (haploid)          |
    | ~430  | Vascular tissue appears           || Enables upright growth, fluid transport                          | 2N (diploid)         |
    | ~420  | Sporangia                         | Megasporangium begins  | Spore-producing structures (seen in Rhyniophytes, Lycophytes)    | 2N                   |
    | ~410  | Heterospory                       | Functional megaspore   | Plants make large (mega) and small (micro) spores                | 2N                   |
    | ~385  | Runcaria                          | Integument precursor   | Fossil shows integumented megasporangium, no fertilization yet   | 2N                   |
    | ~365  | Seed ferns (Pteridosperms)       | Ovule (true seed)      | Integumented, indehiscent megasporangium with 1 megaspore        | 2N                   |
    | ~360  | Early gymnosperms                | Full seed              | Retained embryo + full protective tissue                         | 2N                   |
    | ~320  | Gymnosperm radiation             || Conifers, cycads diversify                                       | 2N                   |
    | ~140  | Angiosperms (flowering plants)   || Double fertilization, fruit, enclosed ovules                     | 2N                   |