At this point, the nature of the current PSUV leadership is frankly secondary compared to the example which Venezuela serves. Whether Venezuela under the PSUV is subverted and eroded Gorbachev-era CPSU-style, or whether it’s Venezuela’s own Special Period will eventually be determined through time. While I say that, Venezuela under the PSUV is not a DotP and they will not have anything close to the latitude afforded to the USSR during its NEP, China during the early Reform and Opening Up and Cuba during Special Period.
For the present, it’s very clear that the Trump government’s objective was to turn this into a “Venezuela model.” They tried to do it to Iran, with catastrophic humiliation thus far. Unable to learn a lesson, they will undoubtedly want to use it against Cuba as well.
Whether Rodriguez is a comprador or biding her time, it can be stated that the current PSUV leadership is clearly compelled to play along with Trump’s narrative about Venezuela. That narrative is that: if you cooperate once we decapitate your current leadership, we will allow you and your party to remain in power, call off our government-in-exile ghouls, give you some form of economic relief so long as you slowly devolve your system as a trade-off.
For countries without the capacity or capability to resist like Iran has, it may seem an odious yet tempting deal and quite an evolution of US foreign policy. The US’ demand towards its adversaries in the original Cold War and in its unipolar moment has always been one of unconditional surrender. All the socialist states destroyed in the 1989-92 counter-revolutions were replaced wholesale. Yugoslavia tried to compromise, but the US refused and launched the Yugoslav Wars. Then, Libya tried to compromise, but the US refused and sent Libya into an unending civil war.
While it is Cuba’s great misfortune is that it is right across from the United States, likewise, the US’ great misfortune is that it is right across from Cuba. That’s to say that the US is psychologically wedded to the idea that it is bounded by two oceans and that the American homeland is untouchable and safe from any possible blowback. This is the great American national neurosis and Cuba challenges that more than the USSR, China, Russia or Iran ever can. In all of contemporary American history, there are only two real instances where the sacred American homeland was attacked: Pearl Harbor and 9/11. No US president wants the history books to say that they allowed the third to occur under their watch.
That, above all else, I believe is the reason why Cuba has been left alone even after the fall of the USSR, in spite of the US invading numerous other countries far away in the meantime and its official military posture today being that it could still take on China at the latter’s doorstep. Even if the entire US military goes into Cuba, one missile lobbed against Miami would create that third attack on the American homeland.
Therefore, while the US bluster is that it could re-do the Bay of Pigs, its only politically viable option is to attempt to trigger a relatively bloodless counter-revolution. The Venezuela model is thereby designed to be a rebuttal against Cuba’s “Patria o Muerte” by attempting to create the impression that the US will not force it to be an either/or but that “Patria” can still exist, so long as it is placed second. Therefore, for leftist observers, it would be important to bear in mind that the continued persistence of the PSUV leadership in Venezuela today speaks not only to their own possible maneuvering, but also dialectically the American desire to play to that end such that it can create a “Venezuela model.” Until the eventual time where the truth will out, this is what really makes the situation in Venezuela rather opaque.
At this point, the nature of the current PSUV leadership is frankly secondary compared to the example which Venezuela serves. Whether Venezuela under the PSUV is subverted and eroded Gorbachev-era CPSU-style, or whether it’s Venezuela’s own Special Period will eventually be determined through time. While I say that, Venezuela under the PSUV is not a DotP and they will not have anything close to the latitude afforded to the USSR during its NEP, China during the early Reform and Opening Up and Cuba during Special Period.
For the present, it’s very clear that the Trump government’s objective was to turn this into a “Venezuela model.” They tried to do it to Iran, with catastrophic humiliation thus far. Unable to learn a lesson, they will undoubtedly want to use it against Cuba as well.
Whether Rodriguez is a comprador or biding her time, it can be stated that the current PSUV leadership is clearly compelled to play along with Trump’s narrative about Venezuela. That narrative is that: if you cooperate once we decapitate your current leadership, we will allow you and your party to remain in power, call off our government-in-exile ghouls, give you some form of economic relief so long as you slowly devolve your system as a trade-off.
For countries without the capacity or capability to resist like Iran has, it may seem an odious yet tempting deal and quite an evolution of US foreign policy. The US’ demand towards its adversaries in the original Cold War and in its unipolar moment has always been one of unconditional surrender. All the socialist states destroyed in the 1989-92 counter-revolutions were replaced wholesale. Yugoslavia tried to compromise, but the US refused and launched the Yugoslav Wars. Then, Libya tried to compromise, but the US refused and sent Libya into an unending civil war.
While it is Cuba’s great misfortune is that it is right across from the United States, likewise, the US’ great misfortune is that it is right across from Cuba. That’s to say that the US is psychologically wedded to the idea that it is bounded by two oceans and that the American homeland is untouchable and safe from any possible blowback. This is the great American national neurosis and Cuba challenges that more than the USSR, China, Russia or Iran ever can. In all of contemporary American history, there are only two real instances where the sacred American homeland was attacked: Pearl Harbor and 9/11. No US president wants the history books to say that they allowed the third to occur under their watch.
That, above all else, I believe is the reason why Cuba has been left alone even after the fall of the USSR, in spite of the US invading numerous other countries far away in the meantime and its official military posture today being that it could still take on China at the latter’s doorstep. Even if the entire US military goes into Cuba, one missile lobbed against Miami would create that third attack on the American homeland.
Therefore, while the US bluster is that it could re-do the Bay of Pigs, its only politically viable option is to attempt to trigger a relatively bloodless counter-revolution. The Venezuela model is thereby designed to be a rebuttal against Cuba’s “Patria o Muerte” by attempting to create the impression that the US will not force it to be an either/or but that “Patria” can still exist, so long as it is placed second. Therefore, for leftist observers, it would be important to bear in mind that the continued persistence of the PSUV leadership in Venezuela today speaks not only to their own possible maneuvering, but also dialectically the American desire to play to that end such that it can create a “Venezuela model.” Until the eventual time where the truth will out, this is what really makes the situation in Venezuela rather opaque.