I imagine the calculus for Russia is that the economic attrition is proving to be more harmful to Europe. Russia is largely self sufficient in terms of essentials having its own food, energy, and industry. Europe has none of these things, and the war on Iran has just dealt a further blow. So, it makes sense for Russia not to escalate and wait for the European regimes to start imploding. We’re already seeing this happening in Germany, and likely in France next.

However, that has to be balanced against Europe becoming more brazen with attacks into Russia. It’s hard to say what Russia’s red lines are here, and at which point the calculus shifts to having to do a demonstration. It seems like the recent statement about nuclear weapon use in regards to Kaliningrad had an effect.