This is a thread specifically for the war, not a general megathread (use the pinned /c/genzedong thread for that).

Please keep related news in this thread rather than making separate posts. Remember to include sources and avoid spreading rumours.

Previous megathread

  • Rylo@lemmygrad.ml
    26·
    10 days ago

    There is a “clear shift in strategic thinking” in Tehran, especially after the killing of the former surpreme leader who had been “cautious about directly confronting” the US, Ali Fathollah-Nejad, director of the Centre for Middle East and Global Order, told Al Jazeera.

    “Now we see escalating regional factional infighting within the regime in Iran between the hardline pragmatists on one hand and the ultra hardliners on the other hand,” he said. The latter seem to be “dictating the dynamic”, he said, adding that “this new Iranian strategy of escalation is formed from new strategic considerations of deterrence against a new full-fledged attack” on Iran that could “destabilise the regime”.

    There is also a “sense of hubris, as well, from this ultra hardline camp, that … Iran has emerged victorious, plus the costs of confrontation are absorbable, and deep scepticism vis-a-vis the hardline pragmatist camp that has been leading Iranian negotiations”.

    Don’t worry guys, previously it was this very real infighting between moderates and hardliners, we have now upgraded to hardliners vs. ultra hardliners. In a few months we will hear that there is a lot of infighting between the super-duper ultra hardliners vs. the ultimato-mega-giga-hardliners. What would we do without these analysts…

    • Malkhodr @lemmygrad.ml
      15·
      10 days ago

      They aren’t completely wrong to say there’s a struggle between moderate Principalists and Revolutionary Principalists. However, thiis struggle is more a disagreement between whether Iran should seize on its gains militarily immediately (Sayyed Jalili and Mojtaba Khamenei), or extract concessions that will be used in the next inevitable conflict (Established IRGC generals). The reformists are still scheming in the background but their call for negotiations and reproach with the west has been largely eclipsed between the debate between Principalists.

      This divide however is not as dramatic or romantic as Nejad paints it to be. Also, the “hardliners” are not falling into hubris for opposing negotiations in favor of directly dealing military blows. They’re seizing on the popular will of the Iranian people and recognize that Iran already has the capacity to dictate terms to the US. Whereas the moderates are sticking to the strategic patience doctrine of Ali Khamenei even though the situation has entirely changed and doesn’t require Iran to wait for a more decisive moment, as that moment is here.

      Nejad, if you look past all the western speak, is pretty correct about the situation all things considered. They’re just framing it as of its a bad thing rather than Iran successfully expelling imperialists from the region.