Video link-> https://video.twimg.com/amplify_video/2027629660373184512/vid/avc1/1280x692/zuo2E5i9QORH5h1Z.mp4
Source -> https://xcancel.com/RapidReport2025/status/2027629748394873333#m
Confirmed Israel attacked Iran
💠Israeli Defense Minister, Israel Katz, announced that the Israeli government has carried out a preemptive strike against Iran “to eliminate threats against the State of Israel.”
Katz declared a special state of emergency across the country and warned that missile and drone attacks against Israel and its civilian population are expected soon.
Instructions from the Home Front Command must be followed, and people should remain in protected locations.
sepahnews.ir (http://sepahnews.ir/) | Sepah News


According to the best estimates, the US makes about 200-400 Patriots per year. Realistically, they probably make about half that, considering that statistics are inflated by announcements like “we aim to increase production by this much at the end of the year”, and then when somebody checks up on that, the production numbers actually drop lower than before. At any rate, the Patriot is the most produced surface-to-air interceptor. After that they make all these other high-tech interceptors at really low numbers (THAADS come out to about 35 a year!).
So in total, let’s say the US builds about 500 ground-to-air interceptors a year.
Let’s add to this another 500 air-to-air plane-launched interceptors a year (no data, just being generous as it is said these numbers are actually even lower than the Patriots)
By US estimates, Iran can produce 100 missiles per month, and probably (on its own, without factoring in Russia and China) 5000 drone per month. Iran probably has about 10 000 ballistic missiles and 100 000 drones. Actually Iran probably has way more ballistic missiles than that, since their armament efforts have been largely hidden from Western intelligence. The US lowballs their estimates, because they assume Iran has destroyed something like 10 000 missiles due to old age, or as a result of the deal with Obama.
Iran fires about around 2000 drones and 300 ballistic missiles per day. If that number seems low to you due to the number of hits shown on various videos, consider that most modern Iranian missiles have cluster warheads, so each missile fired is more like 4-10 missiles hitting the ground. Also some Shahed types actually carry quite a decent load, so their explosions can be mistaken as missiles too.
Israel uses on average 2 interceptors to shoot down 1 drone and 4 interceptors to shoot down 1 missile. We can assume the Gulf States use at least this much as well. They likely use more because their forces are extremely inexperienced and their regimes are extremely casualty-averse. But let’s be generous and use Israel’s ratios as a general rule.
This means that the Epstein Coalition requires about 2000 x 2 + 300 x 4 = 4000 + 600 = 4600 interceptors per day!!!
In one day, they eat 4 years worth of production of interceptors
On the other hand, even if Iran stopped producing all munitions right now, it could still keep going at this rate of fire for another 50 days to run out of drones, and 35 days to run out of missiles. The Epstein Coalition can probably stretch it up the weekend.
There’s a reason the 12 day war ended so abruptly.
I’m usually not too optimistic but if the war keeps going the way it is, then it’s not hard to imagine that US presence in West Asia will be almost completely erased in the span of 2 months time.
I want to doubt that, pessimism of the mind optimism of spirit and all, but I really don’t see how the US can maintain a presence if Iran keeps prolonging the war.
The Iranian government sees this war as existential as well, so any shady ceasefire deals isn’t going to happen again I suspect.
Do you have any sources on the number of Iranian missile and drone launches per day?