• 3 Posts
  • 295 Comments
Joined 3 years ago
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Cake day: June 14th, 2023

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  • The planting season is happening right now

    Which means the planting supplies were lined up months ago. This will be a next-year thing if it cannot be corrected for in time.

    The LNG plants are going to take years to repair

    One section of one country’s exports in a global economy. And that’s ignoring the fact that the Straight isn’t shut down for everyone. The IRGC is negotiating passage for a bunch of unaligned states. Pakistan is going to get their fertilizer. China and Russia will get their supplies. Italy and Spain will be fine. It’s the US-Israel block that’s in trouble. And given how much fertilizer the US produces domestically, not even that much trouble.

    However, some developing countries will have genuine shortages.

    The biggest threat to developing countries is western intervention. The famines happening along the Horn of Africa are the direct result of US, Israeli, and Qatari backed military interventions.


  • There’s almost certainly going to be a farming crisis

    Over a long enough timeline, sure.

    We’ve already seen egg prices skyrocket thanks to bird flu and beef production sag due to drought and Texas Cattle Fever. I have no doubt we’ll continue to see agricultural productivity drag as ecological conditions worsen.

    But the fixation on the Straight of Hormuz as a but-for cause to a global agricultural crash jumps the gun for a host of reasons. The most notable of which is that we heavily overproduce agricultural goods and end up subsidizing their wholesale prices. The biggest problems populations have with famine in the modern era is of storage, distribution, and financialization, not raw productivity. A hiccup in the supply of nitrogen rich fertilizer isn’t going to empty anyone’s shelves.





  • Well, but that’s impossible. In China, he won’t have any freedom. He needs to stay in the United States where he can pursue research into biology and medic- door bang

    shouts of military police

    repeated gunfire

    screams of terrified research assistants

    confused orders from multiple officers at once

    more gunfire

    moaning from injured civilians

    more gunfire

    radio chatter from officers

    “Yeah, they were armed. Looks like syringes and a bunson burner. Yes. All illegal. Yes, we’re cleaning up now. No need to report this up the chain, they already know. Signing out.”









  • Thankfully solar and other supplies are being given to Cuba in large quantities

    That’s news to me. Was just listening to a podcast interviewing a local Cuban journalist, suggesting help was not - in fact - on the way.

    Incidentally, Belly of the Beast does some excellent domestic Cuban coverage. But everything they are reporting suggests these supplies have not been forthcoming, on account of the military blockade of the island. Like, you cannot sail ships into and out of the major harbors (shy of outright smuggling or armed escort).

    Much like with the Gaza Blockade, there are ongoing efforts to build political pressure by assembling relief and directing it at the island. There’s no reason to believe it will actually arrive.